Five signs that will signal Florida's recession is ending

Congratulations. The recession is over.

Uncle Sam (a.k.a. the Department of Commerce) reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the first positive upswing in 15 months.

But few are buying the argument that our economic winter has ended, particularly in Florida. Not with rising, double-digit unemployment and surging credit card defaults.

The increase in economic output was fueled by one-time government stimulus programs boosting auto and home sales. It benefited from comparisons to the third quarter of 2008 when credit markets seized up and the country's biggest financial institutions were in disarray.

Nonetheless, it was a bigger increase than expected and enough to fuel optimism, albeit tempered. "This is just the beginning," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Thursday, adding, "The recession is still alive."

Florida's housing pipeline ramps up again

Home prices have inched up slightly in recent months, though still down more than 40 percent from the 2006 peak. It's hard for Florida's housing industry to gain traction until foreclosures abate and retirees up north can sell their homes and relocate. A recent mortgage applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a large decline in applications for both new mortgages and refinancing. Chris McCarty of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research said that suggests home sales and possibly prices may fall anew once the first-time homebuyers tax credit expires in December.

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Five signs that will signal Florida's recession is ending - St. Petersburg Times - October 30, 2009