'Graying' population will strain Florida

TALLAHASSEE - Since World War II, Florida has beckoned retirees looking to spend their golden years in the sun. The steady stream has made Florida's population the oldest in the nation.

Now, Florida is headed for an even grayer future in the Baby Boomer retirement era, state economists and demographers predict. The consequences: worker shortages and severe strains on public pensions and government services.

By 2030, more than one in four state residents will be 65 or older – or 26 percent, compared with 17 percent today, the University of Florida Bureau for Business and Economic Research says. Over the next two decades, researchers say, Florida's senior population will account for almost 60 percent of the state's population growth, and swell to more than 6 million.

In recent weeks, state economists have been warning legislators that as Baby Boomers retire and not enough working-age residents take their place, they'll have to deal with the fallout.

Many will head to Florida, as they have been doing for decades. Drawn by affordable living, air-conditioned homes and planned communities like Century Village, Florida's retiree population steadily surged over the past half-century, going from 8.6 percent of the population in 1950 to 17.6 percent in 2000.

The numbers are set to balloon even more, reports the UF study, which was commissioned by the Legislature. Florida's current retiree population — 3.3 million residents 65 or older — will jump to 4.6 million in 2020 and 6.3 million in 2030, the study projects. That far outstrips the expected growth rate among working-age residents.

"It's mostly due to the shift in the U.S. age structure, the aging of the Baby Boom generation, which was huge — much larger than those born in the previous years or the following years," said Stan Smith, who leads the UF research department.

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'Graying' population will strain Florida - Sun Sentinel - November 9, 2009