Economics (3)

RESEARCH REPORTS

We conduct research for a variety of local and state government agencies as well as private industry, often collaborating with other research centers. The studies include cost-benefit analysis, economic impact, education, housing, employment projections, property taxes, and many other areas.

Innovation And Stem Education



Publication Type: N/A

Pages: 1

Authors: Holt, Lynn; Leverty, Lynn

Division: N/A


PDF: N/A


Subject Index: N/A



If we have learned anything during the past twenty years, it is that tomorrow’s occupation may not be today’s. Who would have thought that automation would render switchboard operators, assembly workers, and aircraft and automobile production welders obsolete? Twenty years ago, we would not have predicted demand for online community managers, tele-work coordinators, search engine optimization specialists, and sustainability managers. Rapidly changing technologies and global competition make it very difficult to predict occupations and occupational needs. As an example, biotechnology and information technology are changing so rapidly that one’s technical knowledge in those fields may become outdated very quickly. And then there are global developments which impinge on job demands and growth.



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Inter-City Compensating Wage Differentials And Intra-City Workplace Centralization



Publication Type: Regional Modeling, Cost of Living, Housing, Industrial and Occupational Structure, Labor Force and Labor Markets, Wages and Compensation

Pages: 31

Authors: Dewey, Jim; Rojas, Gabriel M.

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index:
N/A



Researchers explore the interaction of inter-city and intra-city compensating wage differentials by occupation conjecting that more central occupations receive higher wage premiums in larger cities, since workers in those occupations face a less desirable locus of housing prices and commuting times than those who have jobs in residential areas.


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Intermodalism, Panama Canal Expansion, And Florida’s Ports



Publication Type: N/A

Pages: 1

Authors: Irwin, Eve; Denslow, David

Division: N/A


PDF: N/A


Subject Index: N/A



In 1955, North Carolina trucking entrepreneur Malcom P. McLean bought a steamship company with the idea of transporting truck trailers with the cargo still inside. He realized that efficiency could be vastly improved if cargo could be placed in one container that was lifted from a vehicle directly onto a ship without first having to unload it. His ideas created the system of “intermodalism,” in which the same container, with the same cargo, with minimum interruption, could be moved seamlessly between ships, trucks, and trains during its journey. This greatly simplified logistical process eventually led to a revolution in cargo transportation and international trade.


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Jacksonville: Choosing A Future



Publication Type: Regional Modeling, Development, Public Policy

Pages: 15

Authors: Holt, Lynne

Division: N/A


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Economy, City data, Florida data



In September 2010, public television broadcast a program titled “Florida: Choosing the Future.” This program was produced with support from the Fred Friendly Seminars, the Florida Humanities Council, WEDU-Tampa, and the Reubin O’D. Askew Institute on Politics and Society at the University of Florida. Its purpose was to promote a broad-based discussion among Florida’s community leaders on the nature of Florida’s public policies as related to government, business development, education, the environment, and citizen participation. The program’s underlying premise was that Floridians need to be engaged in choosing a future for the state. In much the same vein, Jacksonville’s residents should position themselves to choose a future for Jacksonville/Duval County.


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Low, Declining, Polarizing – 2012 Florida Regional Economic Symposium



Publication Type: N/A

Pages: 22

Authors: Dewey, James F; Denslow, David

Division: N/A


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: N/A



After removing the effects of local amenities, prices, and local labor supply and demand shocks, on a wage based measure of skill Florida’s average job just before the Great Recession was 3% below the nation’s, down from 2% at the beginning of the last decade. Florida mimics the national pattern of wage and job polarization—the hollowing of the middle of the skill distribution coupled with strongly rising relative pay for high-skill jobs, slightly rising relative pay for low-skill jobs, and falling relative pay for mid-skill jobs. In addition, labor force participation fell more in Florida than in the U.S. over the past 30 years, and this was more pronounced at low education levels.


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Occupation Centrality



Publication Type: Regional Modeling, Cost of Living, Housing, Industrial and Occupational Structure, Labor Force and Labor Markets

Pages: 1

Authors: Dewey, Jim; Rojas, Gabriel M.

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Economic Analysis Program



Documentation for Occupational Centrality Paper


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Plum Creek, UF, And Economic Growth In The Gainesville Region



Publication Type: Economic Impact, Regional Modeling, Development

Pages: 46

Authors: Dewey, Jim; Denslow, David; Schaub, Ray

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Research Report, Business, Commercial properties, Community development, Comprehensive planning, Economy, Employment, Regional Modeling, University of Florida, City data, County data


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Polk County Healthcare Study: An Economic Analysis Of Polk County’s Indigent Health Care Tax And Safety Net Program



Publication Type: Economic Impact

Pages: 35

Authors: Sandoval, Hector H.; Rowe, Steven; Walsh, Anita; Porter, Colleen K.

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Research Report, Health, County data



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Quantifying The Economic Impact Of The Florida Museum Of Natural History On Alachua County And Florida



Publication Type: Economic Impact

Pages: 7

Authors: Denslow, David; Schaub, Ray

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Research Reports, Earnings, Economic Analysis Program, Economy, Education, Employment, Jobs, Taxes, Tourism, University of Florida, County data, Florida data


The Florida Museum of Natural History (FLMNH) contributes in many ways to the economy of Alachua County and, more broadly, the state of Florida, through its activities. Some of these contributions are quite tangible while others are more intangible. While the intangible may be significant, this study uses FLMNH-provided data and RIMS II multipliers to quantify the tangible contributions to these two regions. The economic impact of the FLMNH is reported in terms of five different metrics: gross output, earnings, employment, value added, and tax revenues.


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Reports On Trends And Conditions Research: The Impact Of The Internet On Transportation In Florida



Publication Type: Economic Impact, Development, Industrial and Occupational Structure, Public Policy, Transportation

Pages: 18

Authors: Dewey, James F.; Denslow, Denslow; Herndon, Jill Boylston; Irwin, Eve

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Economy, Internet, Policy Studies, Public policy, Transportation



The purpose of this paper is to survey current literature on the economic impact of the Internet on transportation. To that end we have searched literature across disciplines including sociology, geography, business, and economics that offers potential answers to the following questions: How are companies incorporating Internet technology into their products and business models? How will the Internet change commuter and shipping traffic? By how much? What models are available to predict the impact of the Internet on future transportation patterns? How does the Internet compare to previous innovations? How will national technological, transportation, and commuting trends affect Florida’s economy and infrastructure?


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Research On The Florida Education Finance Program-The FPLI, The Sparsity Supplement, And Discretionary Millage



Publication Type:Regional Modeling, Cost of Living, Education, Labor Force and Labor Markets, Public Policy, Wages and Compensation

Pages: 134

Authors: Dewey, James F.; Denslow, David; Lotfinia, Babak

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Economy, Education, Florida Education Finance Program, Property taxes, Taxes


In this report, we consider the accuracy and appropriateness of several aspects of the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP) – the Florida Price Level Index (FPLI), the Sparsity Adjustment, and Discretionary Millage.


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Soaring House Prices And Wages Of Local Government Employees



Publication Type: Fiscal Impact, Regional Modeling, Cost of Living, Housing, Labor Force and Labor Markets, Public Policy, Taxation, Wages and Compensation

Pages: 14

Authors: Durrenberger, Tom; Dewey, James F.; Denslow, David

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Housing, Prices, Property taxes, Real estate, Taxes



Local governments in Florida are concerned that the same soaring house prices that have boosted their revenue base have also increased the wages they have to pay to attract a qualified work force, especially relative to similar local governments in many other states where the housing boom has been less remarkable. The doubling of Florida house prices over the past six years that increased local property tax revenue raises concerns that a shortage of affordable housing will undermine their efforts to recruit and retain employees. In this article, we note that the relevant determinant of how wages will change in the long run is the implicit rent of owner‐occupied housing—which is theoretically equivalent to user cost of housing—and the actual rent of apartments and rented houses in an area.


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The Florida Housing Boom



Publication Type: Cost of Living, Development, Housing, Labor Force and Labor Markets, Public Policy

Pages: 16

Authors: Montes Rojas, Gabriel; McGuire, Sandra T.; Ivey, Susan; Durrenberger, Tom

Division: N/A


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Prices, Real State


The recent rise and subsequent decline of housing prices, both in Florida and across the nation, have led to speculation about the nature of house prices in general. This paper explores recent trends in house prices, especially in Florida.



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The Net Impact Of Retirees On Florida’s State And Local Budgets



Publication Type: Fiscal Impact

Pages: 14

Authors: Denslow, David; Schaub, Ray

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Research Report, Retirees, Senior citizens, Taxable sales, Taxes, Florida data



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Polk County Healthcare Study: An Economic Analysis Of Polk County’s Indigent Health Care Tax And Safety Net Program



Publication Type: Economic Impact

Pages: 35

Authors: Sandoval, Hector H.; Rowe, Steven; Walsh, Anita; Porter, Colleen K.

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Research Report, Health, County data


Polk County, Florida’s Indigent Health Care program guarantees the provision of quality health care to the indigent and medically poor residents of the county. For the past 11 years, a one-half cent sales surtax approved by voters in Polk County in 2004 has provided funding for medical and dental services to hundreds of thousands of Polk’s most vulnerable people.


The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) conducted a study to determine the economic impact associated with the Indigent Health Care program. Qualitative research included semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including physicians and administrators of hospitals and clinics.



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The Response Of Railroad And Truck Freight Shipments To Optimal Excess Capacity Subsidies And Externality Taxes



Publication Type: Benefit-Cost, Cost Effectiveness, Fiscal Impact, Program Evaluation, Industrial and Occupational Structure, Public Policy, Revenue Forecasting, Taxation, Transportation

Pages: 47

Authors: Dewey, James F.; Denslow, David; Lenze, David; Irwin, Eve

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Policy Studies, Public policy, Taxes, Transportation, Florida data



Florida’s public highways are congested. At the same time there is excess capacity on private railroads. Further, the social costs of moving a ton-mile of freight—including costs from air pollution, accidents, congestion, and wear on the nation’s transportation system—are lower by rail than by truck for many types of freight movements. Given this situation, should the state design policies to increase utilization of the state’s railroads? Would a policy that subsidizes freight shipment by railroad, and taxes the generation of harmful externalities, be beneficial to residents of the state? This report examines whether such policies can be economically justified.



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Time-Series Estimates Of Pension Benefits By State 1967-2000



Publication Type: N/A

Pages: 59

Authors: Lenze, David G.

Division: N/A


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: N/A


In this paper we describe, compare, and evaluate the available data for preparing time-series estimates of pension benefits by state and present a set of such estimates for the years 1967 to 2000. We conclude that the Current Population Survey is the best source on the basis of timeliness and the length of the time series it can support. This data source, a household survey, is unlike the typical “complete count” administrative records used in the State Personal Income Accounts yet we demonstrate that it provides a geographic distribution very similar to the traditional data sources. Finally we show that state shares of pension benefits exhibit very different trends and these trends oftentimes are the opposite of those exhibited by their shares of social security benefits.



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Tough Choices: Shaping Florida’s Future



Publication Type: Education, Property Taxes, Public Policy, Revenue Forecasting, Taxation

Pages: 461

Authors: Denslow, David; Weissert, Carol

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Education, Property taxes, Public policy, Taxes



In recent years, numerous reports have analyzed Florida’s tax system and argued for change. Although these reports are useful in documenting the current situation, they tend to be one-dimensional—focusing only on the revenue side. In fact, state budgets reflect both revenues and services those revenues support, and thus analysis should take into account both elements—and the tradeoff between them. This analysis does just that, taking into account both taxes and the level of services they support. It examines the history of spending and taxing in Florida and projects spending and taxing over the next five years.



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Tougher Choices: Shaping Florida’s Future



Publication Type: Benefit-Cost

Pages: 120

Authors: Dewey, Jim; Denslow, David

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: N/A


Subject Index: Research Report, Baby Boomers, Demography, Earnings, Economic Analysis Program, Economy, Education, Elderly population, Employment, Gas prices, Gasoline, Housing, Jobs, Labor force, Pensions, Property taxes, Public policy, Railroads, Recession, Research, Retirees, Retirement, Taxable sales, Taxes, Unemployment, Wages, Florida data



This report builds upon the 2005 report Tough Choices: Shaping Florida’s Future, which warned that the state’s revenue system was overly reliant on the booming housing market and rebuilding from hurricanes. In this report, the news is grim. Revenues were hit hard by the recession and are only recently recovering. At the same time, the demand for education, health, and infrastructure spending continues to grow. This report also highlights the role of demographics and labor markets both now and in the future. And, ominously, it points out that Florida is experiencing a “hollowing out” of middle-wage jobs at a rate faster than the rest of the country.



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Transportation Issues: Insights For Florida’s History



Publication Type: Cost Effectiveness, Regional Modeling, Public Policy, Taxation, Transportation

Pages: 67

Authors: Dewey, James F.; Denslow, David; Herndon, Jill Boylston; Irwin, Eve

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Policy Studies, Public policy, Taxes, Transportation


Among the various uses of history, one is to tell a story. Telling a story involves picking out main themes, weighing competing interpretations of events, and relating what happened, usually in something close to chronological order. That is not what we do here. Another role for history is to provide background on current issues, how we got to where we are, with the belief that understanding how conditions that are of concern developed is a source of insight into creating ways to improve them. That is the purpose of this part of our report: to use history to improve our grasp of current transportation issues by indicating their origins. We make no claim that history, and much less our interpretation of it, provides definitive lessons. We do think, however, that an historical perspective complements other approaches. We have selected five issues that pervade current discussions of transportation in Florida.



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Transportation Issues: Intermodal Transportation



Publication Type: Benefit-Cost, Industrial and Occupational Structure, Public Policy, Taxation, Transportation

Pages: 24

Authors: Dewey, James F.

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Policy Studies, Public policy, Transportation



Intermodal transportation is an increasingly important aspect of Florida’s transportation system, one with the potential to boost the State’s economic development and sustain its environment. As such, intermodalism—the concept behind intermodal transportation—is increasingly drawing attention and consideration from agencies and policy-makers at all levels of government. Intermodalism and intermodal transportation can be ambiguous terms. Clarifying their meaning, their historical application and development, and indeed the government’s role in transportation planning aids the planning of an integrated, intermodal transportation system.



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Transportation Issues: Pedestrian Safety



Publication Type: Benefit-Cost, Program Evaluation, Public Policy, Transportation

Pages: 35

Authors: Dewey, James F.; Denslow, David; Lenze, David; Irwin, Eve

Division: Economic Analysis


PDF: Download Research Report


Subject Index: Deaths, Pedestrian safety, Policy Studies, Public policy, Transportation


This report uses economic analyses and presents relevant information to help policymakers determine why pedestrian fatality rates in Florida exceed those in the rest of the country.



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